COVID19 induced lockdown has caused a lot of disruption of life and livelihood. In India Russia has the highest percentage of COVID patients that have recovered (61.9%), followed by India (58.1%), Brazil (54.5%) followed by the US, where only 30.7% of total COVID patients recovered.we have completed three months of lockdown where most social gatherings and public movement were discouraged and only essential services were allowed to function. As we stand today, India is in the fourth position in the world in terms of total number of COVID19 cases, behind only the US, Brazil, and Russia. The number of COVID cases in India are likely to rise further.
As it stood on 27th Jun, 2020, US had 25 lac, Brazil had 12.8 lac , Russia had 6 lac and India had 5 lac cases. Total COVID cases represent a sum total of active, recovered and fatal cases. When expressed as percent of total, active cases infection was highest at 64% in the US, followed by Brazil with 41% active infection, India 38.8% active infection and Russia 36.7% active infection.
Russia has the highest percentage of COVID patients that have recovered (61.9%), followed by India (58.1%), Brazil (54.5%) followed by the US, where only 30.7% of total COVID patients recovered. As it stands on 27th June, in absolute terms India has the lowest number of active patients and a good number of those getting infected are recovering as well.
It is important to note that nearly 15% of COVID19 infected subjects may need hospitalization and around 3% of those hospitalized may succumb to the disease. For a country with a large population as in India, even 3% fatality rate is likely to be a very large number for Indian health care system to cope. In this regard, it is important to note that so far mortality rate has remained comparatively low both in terms of absolute number as well as when normalized with respect to total number of population.
With a population of 1.3 billion, India has registered 11 death per million population. South Asian neighbors of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which probably shares similar gene pool, similar food habits, similar socio-economic environment and a relatively younger population, have all registered low mortality, with 10 fatality per million in Bangladesh and 18 death per million in Pakistan. By contrast, US, France and Brazil have registed 384, 458 and 264 fatalities per million. This despite US having 1/4th, France having 1/20th and Brazil having 1/6th the the population size of India.
Despite showing comparable effect on mortality, it appears that despite its large population, India has shown greater effectiveness, compared to Pakistan and Bangladesh, on reducing active cases and improving percentage of patients recovering from infection. compared to Pakistan and Bangladesh. As can be seen from the table above, India has been showing consistently better efficacy on both parameters of lowering active cases and improving recovered cases.
Both Pakistan and Bangladesh did not enforce strict lockdown, unlike India. The reduction in number of active cases may be related to effect of lockdown enforced in India. Many critics have commented on the severe effect lockdown had on livelihood. More so as many migrant worker started leaving their place of work, as their source of livelihood dried up due to lockdown, some by government arranged train and buses, many by hiring private transport and yet many others on foot. While such migration will certainly have effect on spread of infection t stant parts of the land. But the fact that percentage of active cases are less than recovered cases may suggest some efficacy of lockdown. However, till the time we see absolute number of active cases are actually on the decline, we have a long march ahead.
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