Total number of cases, which include active plus recovered plus fatal cases, have increased over last one month. Active cases which was 49% of total has reduced to 39% of total. Recovery has improved from 48% to 49%. Fatality rate has remained low at 3%, despite reconciliation and audit of number of reported fatality post allegation of under reporting. The figure of eleven deaths per million stands well below the number of 384 per mllion in the US, 458 per million fatality in France, 264 fatality per million in Brazil and 60.6 per million in Russia, nations with superior healthcare infrastructure, high standard of living and lower population density. At the same time, when compared with fatality figure in Pakistan, a country with one sixth the population of India, similar socio-economic environment, Indian fatality data looks better.
Three states, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi, in India are responsible for 50% of COVID19 cases and 70% of COVID19 related mortality. At the end of Jun, 2020, Delhi showing most improvement, followed by Maharashtra and Gujarat, in lowering number of active cases and reporting number of recovery. Mortality rate remains high and above national average of 3% in all three states. Despite a declining trend, Gujarat shows high mortality of 5.9%. Both Delhi and Maharashtra have shown increased incidence of mortality in last one month.
Five states, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Telengana and Andhra Pradesh, contribute to around 20% of COVID-19 related mortality. Of these, Uttar Pradesh with comparable population of the US and Pakistan, has registered 3% mortality, a figure close to national average. Though mortality figure slightly higher than that reported in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal has registered good improvement in lowering active cases and improving recovery. Uttar Pradesh has also followed a similar trend of lowering active cases and increasing recovery.
In Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, mortality numbers have remained below national average, but active cases have actually increased and recovery reduced, when expressed as percent of total. In Tamil Nadu, active cases and recovery have remained stable over last one month, but absolute mortality numbers have actually increased, though when expressed as percent of total mortality figure in Tamil Nadu remains below national average.
Two large state, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, have shown best result in lowering active cases and improving recovery. In both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh recovery stands higher than 75% and active cases have come down from 32% of total to 19% of total and 28% of total to 19% of total respectively. In Madhya Pradesh absolute number of active cases are also showing a declining trend over last one month. Fatality figure remains stable in both states, however, Madhya Pradesh fatality figure, at 4.3% of total, remains high compared to national average of 3%.
It seems that many states in India remains less affected by the pandemic. Worst affected states are fighting back and trying to lower active cases while keeping mortality number under control. With sheer number of new cases being detected daily, Delhi, Maharashtra, and Gujarat, have a long way to go before we see actual reduction of active cases on a daily basis.
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